BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024

800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING

ACROSS CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...21.4N 78.9W

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA

ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca

Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry

Tortugas

* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape

Sable to the Card Sound Bridge

* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to

the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,

including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern

coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this

system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a

portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

21.4 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the

west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest

at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed

by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the

disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits

of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and

then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night

through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher

gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical

depression tonight or on Saturday while over Cuba or the Straits

of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm over

the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands indicate that

the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern

Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west

coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft

Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce

rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to

12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.

coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may

result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river

flooding possible.

For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher

amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in

isolated to scattered areas of flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the

National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and

the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morninn.

Monsters in the Morning

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"The Dancing Queen"

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